SF’s Comeback: What’s Actually Changed in 2026

Last updated: February 2026

TL;DR: San Francisco is turning a corner, and the data backs it up. Crime fell 25% in 2025 (homicides at a 70-year low), AI companies have flooded the city with $122 billion in Bay Area funding, office leasing hit a six-year high, and tourism is projected at 5.89 million domestic overnight visitors in 2026. The vibe is noticeably different. But it’s not all sunshine and fog-free skies — the city still faces a nearly $1 billion budget deficit, the Westfield mall closed, and rents are climbing back up. Here’s what’s actually happening on the ground, from someone who lives here.

I’ve lived in San Francisco for over eight years now, and I’ll be honest — there was a stretch in 2021 and 2022 where even I was questioning things. The headlines were relentless. Car break-ins. Boarded-up storefronts. The “doom loop” narrative that certain outlets seemed to enjoy a little too much. Friends from other cities would text me articles with subject lines like “is it really that bad?” and I’d have to do the awkward dance of acknowledging real problems while also trying to explain that no, the entire city had not, in fact, collapsed.

But something has shifted. I started noticing it in late 2024, and by now, in early 2026, the change is undeniable. More people on the sidewalks. New restaurants opening. Cranes on the skyline. A general energy that I can only describe as… optimism? In San Francisco? I know. Wild.

So let’s talk about what’s actually changed — with real data, real observations, and a healthy dose of honesty about what still needs work. Because if there’s one thing I refuse to do, it’s pretend everything is perfect. This city deserves better than spin in either direction.

Wait, Is San Francisco Really “Back”?

Let me get this out of the way: I don’t love the word “back” because it implies SF went somewhere. It didn’t. Millions of people continued to live here, work here, eat incredible burritos here, and complain about the fog here throughout the entire so-called decline. What has changed is the narrative, the data, and the energy — and those things matter.

The predominantly negative media coverage, especially from conservative outlets that turned SF into a political talking point, has started to shift. Some of that is because the numbers have genuinely improved. Some of it is because new Mayor Daniel Lurie (whether you like him or not, and trust me, opinions vary) has been effective at changing the PR narrative. And some of it is because the AI boom has made San Francisco the center of the tech universe again in a way that’s hard to ignore.

But PR and vibes only go so far. Let’s look at the actual data.

How Safe Is San Francisco Now?

This is the number one question I get from visitors, potential transplants, and people who only know the city from cable news segments. So here it is, plain and simple: San Francisco’s overall crime fell 25% in 2025, and homicides dropped to their lowest level since 1954.

Let me say that again for the people in the back. Nineteen fifty-four. That’s 70 years.

Here’s the fuller picture:

• Overall crime: Down 25% in 2025
• Violent crime: Down 18%
• Property crime: Down 27%
• Robberies: Down a staggering 44.2% (3,011 incidents)
• Motor vehicle thefts: Down 24%
• Burglaries: Down 12.5%
• Larceny theft: Down 21.8%
• Homicides: Just 28 in all of 2025, the lowest since 1954

Now, to be transparent: assaults actually rose 28.6%, which is concerning and worth watching. And car break-ins, while down significantly from their peak, remain an issue you should be aware of (don’t leave anything visible in your car — seriously, not even a phone charger). I go into much more detail in my piece on whether San Francisco is safe, which I recommend reading if this topic is on your mind.

But the overall trajectory is clear, and it’s positive. The SFPD made 6,683 arrests in 2025, including targeted enforcement around drug dealing, and the results are showing up in the data. Is there still work to do? Absolutely. But the “San Francisco is a crime-ridden hellscape” narrative was always exaggerated, and the numbers now make that argument almost impossible to sustain.

What’s the Deal with the AI Boom?

Okay, this is the big one. If you’ve walked through SoMa, Mission Bay, or Dogpatch lately, you’ve felt it. The AI boom is not theoretical — it is physically reshaping the city.

The SF Bay Area pulled in $122 billion in AI funding in 2025 alone. That’s not a typo. Let me put some of those numbers in context:

• OpenAI raised a $40 billion round and now occupies nearly 1 million square feet across Mission Bay
• Anthropic (the company behind Claude — hi, full disclosure, this is relevant to the city’s story) reached a $183 billion valuation and added 100,000 square feet at 505 Howard Street
• Scale AI hit a $29 billion valuation
• Sierra, founded by former Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor, signed a 300,000-square-foot lease at 185 Berry Street

The ripple effects are everywhere. AI companies leased 2.5 million square feet of office space in 2025 and now fill roughly 7 million square feet total — about 12% of San Francisco’s entire occupied office space. There are 76,079 AI professionals working in SF, a 24% year-over-year jump. Office demand is up 356% since ChatGPT launched in late 2022.

San Francisco’s total office leasing hit 10.2 million square feet in 2025, the city’s best year since 2019. The vacancy rate dropped from 34.4% to 33.5%, with that 3-percentage-point annual decline being the biggest since 2011. And projections for 2026 suggest another 15% increase in leasing activity, potentially reaching 12.8 million square feet.

I’ll be honest — you can feel the AI energy when you walk around. Coffee shops in SoMa are full of people with laptops who are absolutely, definitely training models or pitching VCs (or both). The conversations I overhear have shifted from “crypto” and “NFT” to “foundation models” and “inference costs,” which is… an upgrade? I think? At the very least, the AI products feel more tangible than a cartoon ape.

But — and this is an important but — the AI boom has limitations. It hasn’t translated into broad job growth the way some people hoped. The wealth is concentrated in a specific sector, and the benefits aren’t equally distributed across the city. AI companies need engineers, not retail workers, which means the economic trickle-down isn’t as straightforward as “more money in the city means everyone benefits.” We should be honest about that.

How Is Downtown Doing? What About Union Square?

This is where the “comeback” story gets both exciting and complicated. Let’s start with the good news.

Union Square monthly visitors are up 5%, and the area has some genuine momentum. New retail openings have brought energy back to the district:

• A Nintendo Store opened (and yes, it’s exactly as fun as you’d hope)
• Zara moved in with a massive new location
• Mayor Lurie launched 25+ “Vacant to Vibrant” pop-up storefronts on Powell Street and across downtown, filling empty spaces with local businesses, art galleries, and food concepts

The big infrastructure play is the Powell Street redesign — a $40 million project that will transform the three blocks between Market Street and Union Square. The plans include widened 21-foot sidewalks, new cafe seating, gold-colored benches, a giant overhead starburst chandelier at the cable car turnaround, and art nouveau-inspired hanging lanterns. Construction begins in late 2026, with a ribbon-cutting targeted for late 2027. It sounds genuinely beautiful, and honestly, Powell Street needs the love.

Crime in the area has improved dramatically: violent crime near Union Square is down 34% compared to 2019, and property crime is down 54%. That’s a meaningful shift, and you can feel it. More people are lingering, shopping, taking photos. It feels less anxious than it did a couple of years ago.

But What About the Westfield Mall?

Yeah. This one stings. The San Francisco Centre (the former Westfield mall on Market Street) officially closed on January 24, 2026, after reaching 95% vacancy. It had lost Nordstrom in 2023, Bloomingdale’s in early 2025, and by the end, it was basically a massive, echoing monument to the retail apocalypse. Walking through it in its final weeks was genuinely eerie.

The future of the building is TBD. Ideas have ranged from converting it to lab space to (I’m not making this up) a soccer stadium to a theme park. Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase, the current owners, are marketing it for sale through CBRE. Whatever happens, it’s going to be a defining test of downtown’s reinvention story. You can’t have a comeback narrative with a giant, empty mall sitting on your main street.

The broader downtown still has challenges. Vacancy rates citywide remain above 30%, and while AI companies are gobbling up space, that demand is concentrated in specific corridors — Mission Bay, SoMa, and parts of the Financial District. Other areas are still struggling. But the direction is positive, and the energy is real. If you haven’t been downtown in a couple of years, I’d encourage you to go back. It’ll surprise you.

What’s Happening with San Francisco’s Neighborhoods?

One of my favorite things about this city is how different every neighborhood feels (I wrote a whole guide to the best neighborhoods in SF if you want the deep dive). The comeback story is playing out differently depending on where you are.

Dogpatch: The Hot Neighborhood Right Now

If you haven’t been to Dogpatch lately, go. This waterfront neighborhood has been quietly transforming for years, and in 2026, it’s hitting a tipping point. The Power Station redevelopment is reimagining 29 acres of former industrial waterfront with 2,600 new homes, 1.2 million square feet of office and R&D space, 100,000 square feet of retail, and 6 acres of parks. A new waterfront park is expected to open in spring 2026.

Elevation Sky Park, a 165,000-square-foot “multi-sensory playground” featuring three geodesic domes, is slated to open at Pier 70 in 2026. UCSF invested $5 million in revitalizing Esprit Park. And the food scene keeps getting better — the breweries, the waterfront dining, the craft coffee situation. It’s a neighborhood that feels like the future of San Francisco, and I’m here for it.

The Outer Neighborhoods Still Deserve More Love

One thing that bugs me about the “comeback” framing is that it tends to focus entirely on downtown and the usual suspects. Meanwhile, neighborhoods like the Excelsior, Ocean Avenue, the Outer Sunset, and Bayview have been doing their thing this whole time. Small businesses stayed open. Communities showed up. If you want to understand what San Francisco actually is — not the headlines, not the narrative, just the city — spend a Saturday afternoon on Ocean Avenue. Get dim sum in the Richmond. Walk through the Sunset. The comeback is real, but so is the fact that many neighborhoods never left.

What Has Mayor Lurie Actually Done?

Daniel Lurie took office in January 2025, and regardless of your politics (and in San Francisco, politics are complicated), he’s been busy. Here are the headline policy moves:

• PermitSF: A sweeping overhaul of the city’s notoriously painful permitting process. The legislation removes permit requirements and fees for many common business signs, introduces transparent timelines and accountability metrics, and generally tries to make it less nightmarish to open or renovate a business in the city. As someone who has watched small business owners almost lose their minds navigating SF permits, this is genuinely meaningful.
• Free childcare: San Francisco expanded free and subsidized childcare to families earning up to roughly $230,000 a year (for a family of four), with 50% subsidies extending even higher. In a city where the cost of living is 63% above the national average, this is a big deal — especially since SF has historically had more dogs than children, and attracting families is key to the city’s long-term health.
• Charter reform: Lurie and Board President Mandelman launched an effort to reform the city charter, which many consider bloated and outdated. A charter reform measure is expected on the 2026 ballot.
• Drug enforcement: A triage center approach to drug enforcement, continuing the city’s complex balancing act between public safety and compassionate treatment.
• Downtown revitalization: The Vacant to Vibrant storefronts, the Powell Street redesign, and continued activation programming — concerts, pop-ups, events — aimed at bringing foot traffic back to Union Square.

Is everyone happy? Of course not — this is San Francisco. But the general consensus seems to be that Lurie has brought a competent, business-friendly energy and, crucially, has helped shift the way national media talks about the city. Whether that PR shift translates to lasting structural change remains to be seen, but the narrative matters. When potential businesses, residents, and visitors are deciding whether to come to SF, what they’ve heard about the city makes a difference.

How Is Public Transit Doing?

As someone who rides Muni regularly (the N-Judah and I have a complicated relationship), this one is personal.

The good news: Muni ridership has recovered to 75-79% of pre-pandemic levels, with 158 million trips in 2024 (up 13.5 million from 2023). Weekend ridership has been especially strong, hitting 92% of pre-pandemic levels. Subway delays are down 70%, which — as someone who has spent more time than I’d like standing on a platform wondering if the train is coming — is a noticeable improvement.

The bad news: Muni faces a $320 million budget deficit starting July 2026, with projections suggesting it could grow to $434 million by 2030. The deficit stems from declining parking revenue, the shift to remote work, and the exhaustion of federal COVID-era grants. A transit tax measure is expected on the 2026 ballot, and its outcome will determine whether the ridership gains hold or get eroded by service cuts.

I’ll say this: when Muni works, it’s one of the best parts of living in San Francisco. The light rail lines cover a huge amount of the city, and the historic streetcars on the F-line are legitimately charming. But Muni has always been a “two steps forward, one step back” situation, and the financial cliff ahead is a real concern. If you’re visiting, Muni is absolutely usable and often the best way to get around. Just, you know, build in a little buffer time. (Also, Waymo is an option now, if you want the surreal experience of riding in a self-driving car through the city.)

What About Housing and Cost of Living?

Here’s where I’m going to be direct: San Francisco is still extremely expensive, and the comeback is making it more so.

Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is hovering around $3,640, and it’s trending upward as the AI boom brings more high-earners into the city. The median home price remains around $1.4 million. The cost of living in SF is roughly 63% above the national average, with housing specifically running about 245% above the national norm.

The AI influx is a double-edged sword here. Yes, it’s bringing economic activity, tax revenue, and vitality. But it’s also putting pressure on an already strained housing market. When you add 76,000+ AI professionals to a 47-square-mile city that was already too expensive, the math isn’t great for people who aren’t in tech.

Lurie’s childcare initiative and permitting reforms are positive steps, and the city is building more housing than it has in years. But we’re not going to solve the affordability crisis anytime soon. If you’re considering a move, my honest advice is to look at neighborhoods beyond the usual suspects — the Excelsior, Outer Sunset, and Bayview offer more reasonable rents. And check out my neighborhood guide for specifics on what each area actually costs.

What About Tourism? Is It a Good Time to Visit?

Short answer: yes. Genuinely, emphatically yes.

SF Travel forecasts 5.89 million domestic overnight visitors in 2026, spending an estimated $2.91 billion. The Moscone Center convention calendar is robust, and 2026 brings some blockbuster events:

• Super Bowl LX is being hosted in the Bay Area, with San Francisco expected to capture $250-440 million in economic impact
• The FIFA World Cup comes to the Bay Area in summer 2026
• The usual beloved events — Outside Lands, Stern Grove concerts, Hardly Strictly Bluegrass — continue to draw crowds

For visitors, the timing is excellent. Crime is down, Union Square is more vibrant, new restaurants are opening constantly (check out my guide to the best restaurants in SF), and the overall energy is the best it’s been in years. The city is also more accessible than it was during the pandemic — Muni is running well, Waymo is available, and the neighborhoods are alive.

If you’re planning a trip, my 3-day San Francisco itinerary is a good starting point. And if you want the insider experience — the hidden coffee shops, the underrated neighborhoods, the places that don’t show up on typical tourist lists — well, that’s kind of what this whole site is about.

What Still Needs Work?

I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t lay out what’s still broken. A comeback story with no caveats isn’t honesty — it’s marketing. So here’s what keeps me up at night (besides my neighbor’s car alarm):

• The budget deficit is serious. Mayor Lurie ordered $400 million in cuts, and the total shortfall could reach nearly $1 billion when factoring in federal funding cuts (particularly to Medicaid, which could cost SF $200+ million per year). City services will be affected.
• The Westfield mall is a giant question mark. A 95%-vacant, closed mega-mall on your main commercial street is not great for the “we’re back” narrative. Whatever happens with that building will be a bellwether.
• Muni’s financial cliff is real. The $320 million deficit starting this summer could lead to service cuts that undermine all the ridership gains. The 2026 ballot measure is critical.
• AI wealth isn’t broadly shared. The boom is concentrated in a narrow sector, and the economic benefits aren’t reaching service workers, artists, educators, and other communities that make San Francisco San Francisco.
• Housing affordability is getting worse, not better. Rents are rising again, and the AI influx is adding pressure. We need more housing at every income level.
• International tourism is down. While domestic visitors are up, international arrivals fell 3.2% in 2025, partly due to federal policy changes. SF has always been an international city, and losing that traffic hurts.
• Homelessness remains visible and painful. The city has made progress in some areas, but the human suffering on our streets hasn’t been solved, and any honest assessment has to acknowledge that.

So What’s the Bottom Line?

San Francisco is turning a corner. The data supports it, the energy on the ground confirms it, and even the national media has (mostly) stopped writing obituaries for the city. Crime is at historic lows. The AI boom has created genuine economic momentum. Downtown is showing signs of life. Tourism is projected to grow. And a new mayor is pushing reforms that, at minimum, are pointed in the right direction.

But a corner is not a destination. The city still faces enormous challenges — budget deficits, housing costs, transit funding, equitable growth — that will take years to work through. The comeback is real, but it’s fragile. It depends on smart policy, continued investment, and the willingness to be honest about what’s working and what isn’t.

As someone who chose this city and continues to choose it, I’m more optimistic than I’ve been in a while. Not in a naive way — in a “the fundamentals are strong and the trajectory is right” way. San Francisco has survived earthquakes, recessions, pandemics, and an entire decade of “is San Francisco dead?” think pieces. It’s still here. It’s still beautiful. It’s still weird. And honestly? It’s getting better.

If you’ve been thinking about visiting, come visit. If you’ve been thinking about moving here, start looking at neighborhoods. And if you’ve been reading doom-and-gloom articles about this city from the comfort of some other state — maybe come see it for yourself before you write it off. I think you’ll be surprised.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is San Francisco safe to visit in 2026?

Yes. San Francisco’s overall crime dropped 25% in 2025, with homicides reaching a 70-year low (just 28 in the entire year). Robberies fell 44%, property crime fell 27%, and violent crime in the Union Square area is down 34% compared to 2019. As with any major city, use common sense — don’t leave valuables visible in parked cars, stay aware of your surroundings, and you’ll be fine. I have a full breakdown with data in my article on whether SF is safe.

How has the AI boom affected San Francisco?

Significantly. The SF Bay Area attracted $122 billion in AI funding in 2025. AI companies now occupy 7 million square feet of office space (12% of the city’s total), and there are 76,079 AI professionals working in SF — a 24% year-over-year increase. Office leasing hit a six-year high at 10.2 million square feet. The boom has brought economic vitality, new residents, and a renewed sense of purpose, but the benefits are concentrated in the tech sector and haven’t yet translated to broad-based job growth or improved affordability.

Is San Francisco still expensive in 2026?

Yes, very. Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is approximately $3,640, the median home price is around $1.4 million, and the overall cost of living is 63% above the national average. The AI boom is pushing rents upward in popular neighborhoods. However, areas like the Excelsior, Outer Sunset, and Bayview offer more affordable options. Mayor Lurie’s free childcare program for families earning under $230,000 is one policy aimed at easing the financial burden, but affordability remains one of the city’s biggest challenges.

What are the biggest changes in San Francisco since the pandemic?

The biggest shifts include: a dramatic drop in crime (25% overall in 2025), the AI industry transforming neighborhoods like SoMa, Mission Bay, and Dogpatch, Muni ridership recovering to 75-79% of pre-pandemic levels, Union Square attracting new retail (Nintendo Store, Zara) with a $40 million Powell Street redesign underway, Waymo self-driving cars becoming a normal part of daily life, and a new mayor (Daniel Lurie) pushing business-friendly reforms like PermitSF. The Westfield mall closed in January 2026, but the overall trajectory is strongly positive.

Is it a good time to move to San Francisco?

If you can afford it and you’re drawn to the city’s energy, 2026 is genuinely one of the better times in recent years to make the move. The economy is growing, crime is down, new neighborhoods are emerging (Dogpatch in particular), and the cultural scene is vibrant. That said, be realistic about costs — housing is expensive, and the budget deficit could affect city services. Start with my neighborhood guide to figure out which part of the city fits your lifestyle and budget, and read up on things nobody tells you about SF so you know what you’re getting into.